Showing posts with label entry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label entry. Show all posts

Friday, July 11, 2008

Overcoming Greed

No, I'm not here to tell you that I've overcome greed.

However, I can tell you how damaging it is to let greed get involved in your decision making process. Generally, it works like this:

  • You see a pair moving in a direction, let's say up, and you want aboard before the big move.

  • You grab a piece of this pair right then, so you won't be left behind.

  • You look at your charts and see that you've bought at the top of a bollinger band in one timeframe or another.

  • You spend untold hours having the price come close to your original purchase price but of course it never gets above your purchase price to any degree.

  • After biting your nails for hours you finally dump the pair as soon as you can get a few measly pips out of it.
Sound familiar? Here's me being an idiot...

Bad entry point

The really annoying thing that occurs to you, again and again, in the above scenario, is that if you had waited until the price fell a dozen pips or more you'd have been able to make five or six reasonably profitable trades instead of sitting on a turkey.

While bollinger bands are not a panacea they can be a great tool. If you buy close to a short-term low on your chart you are much more likely to be able to sit on your trade and wait for a good move. This is because your trade may never sink far enough under water to cause you stress.

Yes, yes, I know. We should always have stops on when we make our purchases. However, that doesn't mean that we won't want to babysit our trades so that we can be there to grab another trade if the opportunity strikes.

Once again, an opportunity for you to learn from my mistakes...

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Timing Market Entry

I've noticed that the Forex markets move both fast and slow.

If you are busy sinking money into some carry positions, the market might suddenly decide to go sideways, or perhaps down, for the next week. So, you go underwater and don't get to lighten your load on subsequent upswings.

However, if you are light in the market, a piece of news will drop and leave your jaw on the floor as you miss out on a quick 100 pip swing. Obviously, if you play the news, it will come in on the wrong side or the market with interpret it in a way that surprises you in order to throw you under the wheels of the money train.

In short, it's not easy getting into the market safely with any quantity of net asset value.

The problem really arises when you take small bites, getting into the market without risking all that much, and then find out that you were wrong. The market will wiggle around a lot, near your entry price, enticing you into thinking it will eventually recover, and then sink a bit more. If you put in a stop loss, the market will hit that, then bounce back up -- taunting you with a profit that you can't participate in.

It's simply devious.

So, how do you get into the market? How do you accumulate a set of carry positions that are in profit? When do you enter the market? What signals should you be following? As I've noted before, technical analysis of the carry pairs is very tricky, as they are driven by market movements. These pairs are happy to run roughshod over your trend lines any time the markets are euphoric, nervous or calm enough to lure you in.

My suggestion is for you to work out the resistance points. As you approach a resistance point you can see how the pair reacts. If it stops or starts to bounce, you might feel it worthwhile to enter a position. You are basically risking the pip spread plus the distance to your stop loss. You simply have to risk a small amount of capital in order to play.

The key is pick your entry points when you have the best chance of seeing an upturn. It's not easy.