AUDJPY: Long Entry Decision

I've been having some success calling the shots on the AUDJPY charts.

This morning we've been having a correction from yesterday's highs. While I've been hearing scuttlebutt on twitter concerning shorting the carry trades, I remain upward biased.

My view, the current drop in price is setting us up for a possible double bottom or simply a W shaped chart. Simultaneously, I do see some stochastic and RSI confirmation that this is likely.

So, I'd suggest keeping an eye on the movement. We are at or are approaching a long entry decision point.

AUDJPY: Rebound

Sweet. I've got a support line around ~70.60 that is approximately where the market bounced back into upward movement.

If you follow my ramblings on Twitter you'll see me making noises about a rebound in the works... and it came about while I was asleep.

It's a very good feeling to have the market respect your charts and signals. Too bad it doesn't happen all that often.

No time to look into things this morning. However, there's two obvious notions, either a retest at the top or a reversal and retest at the bottom of our recent downward move.

AUDJPY: Risk vs Opportunity

Today we see the crux of the issue.

The AUDJPY has suffered a pullback. A return to recent highs gives us the possibility of a double top. A bounce off the recent low gives us the possibility of the a double bottom. There may be more complex structures at play as well, but you get the idea.

This is risk point. This is an opportunity point.

If you get in, say with a long position right now, you don't know if it will turn around. You don't know if the recent upward trend will survive. Sure, you'll set a stop, but you don't really want to throw money away at stops needlessly.

You have to look for clues as to the market's probable direction. For example, you might notice a pattern on the candlestick chart, the stochastic, RSI, or perhaps some other indicator.

I'm long term bullish, but that doesn't mean the market can't confound me long enough to relieve me of my money if I'm foolish about it. There's an opportunity out there right now. Who's going to figure out what it is and who's going to suffer a loss for it?

Hey, seriously, there is no shame in staying on the sidelines and waiting for whatever signals you follow if there aren't any there now.

EDIT: By the way, I see the price dropping below support, so I think we're going to see a bit of downward action before we return to optimism.

AUDJPY: Forex Recap

It was a good day to be long AUDJPY.

We're in a bit of a pullback right now. Obviously, this is either a great time to get in or it's the start of a downturn.

That's how it works!

I'm willing to take a nibble...

Bullish on AUDJPY

At the moment things are looking bullish for the AUDJPY.

I popped in another small position a few moments ago and so far it's been north from there. If things turn around I'll wait for a good low and then play the game where I replace higher longs with lower longs.

Obviously, though I don't expect another huge currency collapse, I'll still have to play it cautiously. You never can tell what might happen.

Poised For The Pop

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I have been working on sinking some smaller positions while the AUDJPY was going sideways (or suffering a slow decline).

Today is the day that this bears fruit. Trading lower positions for higher positions now has me with some sunk positions that I can unload at a decent profit as the AUDJPY continues to spike.

Was That My Correction?

A few days ago I was saying that perhaps the AUDJPY would pull back after it's very fast rise up into the 71.xx range.

It continued rising to somewhere around 72.80 instead. However, early last night it was bumping down around the 70.00 mark. Was that my correction?

My three hour (I trade with Oanda) shows leg room all the way to 68.xx if it's thinking about correcting.

That's the trick with Forex trading, you never really know whether it's done going in any particular direction or if it's just throwing you a feint.

What can I say? Roll with the punches.

Riding the AUDJPY Sideways

So, it looks like we've had several days of sideways motion on the charts. I don't mind at all.

As long as you buy on the low end and sell on the high end these are good times to play in the market too.

For periods of non-trending action I like to watch the stochastic and RSI indicators. The stochastic are reasonable but they do give a ton of false signals. The RSI can help corroborate their action a little bit.

Something I like to do, especially because I continue to expect a long term upward trend, is buy a long position and see what happens. If the movement is what I like to call rational, I'm willing to buy another below it. When the higher of the two long positions is profitable, I'll sell it.

This effectively replaces my higher position and makes it harder for the market to dislodge me with a downward spike. Then, because I do expect the market to go up over the long term, if it does, I can potentially have multiple well placed positions just waiting to reap in the gains.

However, as with anything, it's harder than it sounds and you'll want to use small position sizes.

AUDJPY Popped To 72.30

Though I had expected a downturn before the pop... the long flat period today in the 71.xx range clued me in to a possible spike.

When the 15 min bollinger bands tightened up and the price popped above it, the clinch was in.

I hopped on with a couple tiny positions, nearly instantly protected by stop losses, and grabbed a few pips on the spike.

Now the question is, will the uptrend continue or will I get my correction. The way things seem to work it may take a double top to get that correction.

Let's wait and see...

Catching The Run To 71.00

Did you ride the recent run in the AUDJPY to 71?

I was lucky enough to grab and hold a chunk at 65.62 and I'm pondering whether or not I want to let it go.

We've just had a double top on the 15 minute chart. The 1 hour is oversold. I think we are going to get some bounces upward due to exuberance, but it seems about time for a pullback.

I've sold off the nibbles I also acquired on the way up. I think I'll try to sink my chunk. I'd really like to have some sunken carry trade chunks earning interest and I am long term bullish on the AUDJPY.

Be ready for a drop, perhaps today, likely before the weekend.

Last Week's Results

I can hardly believe it myself, but last week my NAV gains totaled 97.5%, which is entirely incredible. Too bad I'm such a small participant.

No, unfortunately, this had nothing to do with my recent forays into developing an expert advisor. It seems that I've stumbled across some charting factors that provide me some measure of insight into market movements.

The market doesn't always behave, but when she does, it's great!

Edit: I forgot to mention that after the great results last week, I'm almost afraid to trade this week. How silly is that?