Topping Out?

It looks like the AUDJPY may be topping out. The following 15 minute chart shows a return to a previous high with something that could end up being a head and shoulders pattern emerging.

However, the 3 hour chart is showing a possible continuation and has been trending upwards for quite a while.

Open up your trading platform and choose your play...


Play safe!

AUDJPY: Signs Of A Bottom?

First, I have to warn you, I'm eternally bullish on the AUDJPY. This means I'm wrong on my predictions a fair amount due to my long term viewpoint.

With that said, I've noticed a chart sign that implies some possible upward movement.

Take a look:


It may not be easy to see, but notice how the recent tails, at 09:00, under the last few candlesticks did not project below the closing prices during a recent, at 03:00, previous low?

Up until now, for days now, we'd see the close of each new low at the level of the tails of previous lows. This doesn't mean we can't go further down -- especially during the Asian session. However, it does mean that we have the potential to be running out of downward pressure.

If so, whether it is short lived or not will depend on upcoming news and the impact this has on the sentiment of traders. As you know the political unrest in the US and the tightening in China has set the mood negative lately.

UPDATE: Boom. Instant downward movement to invalidate my sign. The fact it showed temporarily may hint at trend weakening. We do have a fair amount of gloom and momentum to work through.

UPDATE: It's now 23:00 and AUDJPY has just risen to just under 81.60 which would seem to suggest that downward pressure had indeed been flagging. Of course, nothing goes straight up or straight down... but trading 100+ point moves is rather nice.

AUDJPY: Poised?

I don't have time to snip a chart or anything, however I'd suggest taking a few moments to analyze the AUDJPY.

What I see is the potential for a so-called "big W" on the 3 hour chart. You'll notice the right side of the W has a double bottom. If we do get the full "big W" we should see some dramatic upward movement over the week.

Fundamentally, inflation, employment and other indicators in Australia seem to indicate the need for the RBA to continue to increase rates. If any more hot growth news comes out prior to February we may see speculation on a 50 basis point increase instead of the widely expected 25 basis points.

In summary, look for a safe low-risk entry point if your analysis of the charts agrees (or even disagrees) with mine.

UPDATE: If you disagreed with me you'd be happy with this morning's (Jan 20) breakdown... though so far the next resistance point seems to have held.

AUDJPY: Technical Analysis

Well, my posts are few and far between these days.

In case anyone else is still following long here is some good information on the 3hr AUDJPY.

We have a nice symmetric triangle going all the way back to November 25th.

See?


I'm expecting this to break (upward) and then run into a downward sloping resistance line on the 1d AUDJPY. However, we'll have to wait and see. I've been wrong (more than a few times) before.

UPDATE: Here we have the price dropping, on the 1hr, giving us a good entry point. We can easily set a stop loss relatively close while targeting the upper boundary for profit. However, as there was news earlier, we may find that the support line yields to changed market expectations.


UPDATE: The bar isn't closed on the 1hr but it's almost 11:00pm ET and it looks like we are breaking downward at the moment.

AUDJPY: Support Becomes Resistance

My last post showed a profitable overnight setup based on a week long support line on the 1hr chart.

Here, I've got an example of a support becoming resistance once it has been violated.

Take a look at the following 15min chart:


See the violation around 9:00pm last night? As an aside, this was a good point to try a well protected short. Overnight we tested a longer term support line (see my previous two posts) which held.

Finally, notice that recently this previous support line held as resistance just before 6:00am. I do expect it to be violated as the longer term support held -- but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

AUDJPY: Price Alert

Since I'm awake I thought I'd point out a price alert.

The AUDJPY currency pair is testing a support line.

A long tail break (closing on or above the support line) would still be a bullish sign.

Anywhere, here's a recent 1hr chart snip.


This is a good place to look for a trade. Good luck.

NOTE: See the previous post... it shows the support line valid since November 1st.

UPDATE: Upon waking this morning I see my take profit was hit and I managed to add 2% to my NAV while sleeping. Honestly, this is quite rare, but a good trendline (one that has been and does get honored again) gives you a well defined opportunity.


See how the violations are "tailed" and the line provides support? I got in at 83.21 at 12:38am and took profit at 83.70 at 5:35am. If I had of been awake I probably would have been nervous during the second testing after 3:00am.

AUDJPY Forecast

What the heck, I may as well jump out on a limb and let you know what I'm seeing with the AUDJPY.

Basically, if you look at the chart, we've had a good support line since the beginning of November.

Now, if I've got the right chart uploaded, take a look below:


Personally, I'd suggest taking a long position when the price approaches the support line. You can set a nearby stop and protect yourself from much by way of downside risk.

The only issue, for me, is that Sunday trading seems a bit wild at times.

UPDATE: Well, I hope somebody played the bounce...


It was worth it.

AUDJPY: Market Call

The AUDJPY has done a whole lot of nothing for the last few days.

Can you blame it? It must be tired after the recent climb.

More seriously, with the RBA considering whether to raise rates another 25 or perhaps even 50 basis points, I don't expect any type of calamitous drop.

I think we might see a drop down to 83.00 again but if it does stop in that region I'd consider the range between there and 84.30 to be a consolidation zone. Again, given the interest rate decision in the near term future I'd eventually expect more upward movement as long as there is not an RBA based negative surprise.

Your mileage may vary.

UPDATE: Wednesday after 10:00am, we have an apparent AUDJPY breakout... currently at 84.50 and testing the underside of our previous support channel. I'm hoping that we reject 84.50 a few times before crossing -- as that will help my trading robot better take advantage of the movement.


See what I'm talking about? You can go back through a few previous posts to get a wider view of recent events.

Possible AUDJPY Reversal Point

I obviously have no guarantees but, according to my own proprietary reversal indicator, this is a potential reversal point.

Again, do your own homework, but this is the "signal" I'll be posting to my alerts blog...

UPDATE: It's about 9:49pm and the AUDJPY 1hr chart is showing a potential twin tail.

UPDATE: It's 10:03pm and here's the 1hr chart right now...


And here's the chart from my last post showing the 3hr trend channel.


I don't know if we are going to stay in trend, but I wouldn't expect a straight drop through a support line that has been in effect for so long.

AUDJPY: October Trend

The AUDJPY has been on an upward trajectory for a while now.

There is no telling, at least not in advance, whether we'll see more massive upward movement due to hawkish statements from the RBA or not.

However, here is a 3hr chart showing recent movements:


Obviously, clear support and resistance helps identify some lower risk entry points.

AUDJPY: Possible Bull Flag

My last post focused on a short term channel.

This time I'm looking at a longer term trend -- though still on the 1hr AUDJPY chart. This one looks like it might be a bull flag.

It's always hard to tell. However, with future interest rate hikes expected, it's likely we'll continue our upward movement if signs of an Australian recovery remain strong.

Here's the chart:


Play safe.

UPDATE: It's 7:00am the next morning... and our chart now looks like this:


Any other AUDJPY traders out there? If we pull back near the top of the possible bull flag channel that would potentially be a good entry point. I'd expect a bounce off of 82.00 as it's a recent and long term high as well as a psychological point.

UPDATE: Pennant? Flag? It's still bull... ;)

AUDJPY: Channel on the 1hr

There's a channel on the AUDJPY 1hr chart.

For as long as the channel decides to last we have an opportunity at either the top or bottom levels.

Notice it going back and forth?

This is perfect for my custom trading robot...


Unfortunately, predictability never lasts.

Well, that was nice. It's about an hour and half later... see the bounce? Click the image to get a larger version...


Are we going to make it back to the top?

UPDATE: It's approaching 9:15pm. Here's a 15min chart showing the latest action and a channel support challenge:


I'm guessing we break downward. I'm not betting on it though.

UPDATE: Around 9:40pm... and we are out!

AUDJPY: 3hr A/D Trend

Here's a snip showing the accumulation distribution on the AUDJPY since the 2nd of October.

The recent test of the support line happened today near 2:30pm. Obviously, the fact that the RBA appears to be ready to continue a series of interest rate hikes appears to be driving this.


I'm looking for this line to break.

UPDATE: It's just after 6:30pm and I figured it might be nice to get a larger look at the situation (so it's easier to tell whats happening).



Notice the last minute downward motion on the A/D? I'd like it to hold and continue upward... but I continue to watch for the break.

UPDATE: It's almost 7:00pm. It looks like a break may be in progress. We'll have to see what happens prior to the end of the bar.


This may presage a correction in the AUDJPY. I'm putting my AUDJPY trading robot on a short leash.

UPDATE: It's approaching 7:30 and we get a different look right now.


The robot is staying on that short leash for now...

UPDATE: It's now 3:00am on the 13th of October. We're still treading just above the A/D support line.


I've noticed people tweeting about opening short positions. It might be best to wait until the A/D support line provides a signal.

Skeptical About The AUDJPY?

I'm sorry you feel that way. Perhaps after looking at the following chart snip you'll think that you may have missed the boat.

See how the daily chart shows solid support since March? March! Hello, it's a little too late to be skeptical. The question you have to ask yourself is why has the AUDJPY been performing so well and how long will it continue to do so.


On another note, I'm going to start posting "signals" to a companion blog soon... perhaps as early as next week. I've already created the blog. These won't quite be signals but they will be alerts suggesting points of opportunity.

Alert: AUDJPY Head And Shoulders?

I've spent most of today scalping the AUDJPY (on the long side).

Jumping up to my 3hr and 4hr charts, as I have two platforms running, I see an upside down head and shoulders.

You may want to take a look at this and see what you think.

FX Trading And Analysis

I've become a little frustrated with most of news sources out there. If you've been an active forex trader for any length of time you'll notice that talking heads are always trying to tell you why something happened.

That's really nice, and might possibly help you learn about various financial interactions, but it's absolutely useless from a trading point of view. If you are trading you need to figure out what's going to happen -- not what just happened. Check out this video (complete with atrociously low audio levels).

This type of analysis is unlikely to help you with your fx trading tomorrow. Generally, how the markets will move tomorrow, based on tomorrow's news, is not something you'll get from any of the gurus and talking heads.

On the other hand useful analysis will be too slow to be meaningful. For example, I'm very confident the world economy will eventually recover. When that happens we'll have a period of high interest rates as rising commodity prices drive inflation. Guess what? This will mean that carry trades pairs will end up at much higher prices. Unfortunately, I can't tell you when the world is going to focus on this. Generally, not before the money moves from wherever it is to wherever it is finally going to end up.

The closest thing to predictive analysis, or something you can really use to drive your forex trades, is technical analysis. Charting. Something which gets very little respect in some circles. Many people don't understand it and many others discount it because it isn't able to make perfectly accurate predictions. Technical analysis does not have to be a perfect tool for prediction. It merely has to increase the odds that your fx positions end up earning you a profit.