With that said, I've noticed a chart sign that implies some possible upward movement.
Take a look:
It may not be easy to see, but notice how the recent tails, at 09:00, under the last few candlesticks did not project below the closing prices during a recent, at 03:00, previous low?
Up until now, for days now, we'd see the close of each new low at the level of the tails of previous lows. This doesn't mean we can't go further down -- especially during the Asian session. However, it does mean that we have the potential to be running out of downward pressure.
If so, whether it is short lived or not will depend on upcoming news and the impact this has on the sentiment of traders. As you know the political unrest in the US and the tightening in China has set the mood negative lately.
UPDATE: Boom. Instant downward movement to invalidate my sign. The fact it showed temporarily may hint at trend weakening. We do have a fair amount of gloom and momentum to work through.
UPDATE: It's now 23:00 and AUDJPY has just risen to just under 81.60 which would seem to suggest that downward pressure had indeed been flagging. Of course, nothing goes straight up or straight down... but trading 100+ point moves is rather nice.
4 comments:
Calling bottoms I see! Hehe, that's a dangerous game. I think you are correct on the long term outlook, although anything can happen between now and then. It's the same with the gloom and doomers on the greenback. We can all agree were things will end up, but how will it get there? And will the yen and/or euro beat us there? On a relative scale, the greenback could have a bright immediate future. We've been transitioning however, and new trends are emerging. Place your bets.
Hey Nick,
Thanks for the note.
There's a lot of "gloom" on the AUD right now.
Apparently somebody was talking about regulating carry trades, China is tightening, the economic signs in Australia are mixed and the RBA is potentially going to take a breather and so on.
If we get a few more pieces of bad news I think the cake will be baked, so to speak.
Another Oanda fan I see.
You bet purplepatch, they are friendly to small fish such as myself.
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