Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Oanda FXTrade On Ubuntu Dell Mini 12

Okay, it's working.

I have Oanda running a single FXTrade window while I'm open in another browser typing this blog post.

Here is what I did to get this working:

  1. Close down extra charts -- only the basic platform window is running.
  2. Eliminate extra currency pairs -- only follow two or three active pairs
  3. Shrink the window -- show everything but in as small a footprint as it practical.
With these steps I was able to launch, sync, open a trade box and watch the graph update in real time.

This means you can trade using the Mini 12. However, if you want to do serious analysis or chart work you'll probably have to use a different platform. However, once you have your chart set up, or otherwise have a trading plan to follow, you can run FXTrade.


UPDATE: It's several months later. I don't know if a Java update, an Ubuntu update, or if an FXTrade update made the difference, but the Mini 12 is much more capable of running this application than it was originally. I can keep multiple charts open and I no longer have only a single currency in the quote panel.

Dell Mini 12 -- Ubuntu

I recently bought the Dell Mini 12 thinking it would be noiseless, so that I could leave it on overnight while I slept. I tend to wake up from time to time so that would be an easy way to check for Forex opportunities during the night.

Unfortunately, running the Oanda FxTrade application causes the system to grind to a halt. Right now my profile automatically opens multiple charts (1 min, 15 min and 1 hr) -- which if I'm very lucky is part of the problem. On launch I see the base chart and trading platform open up but it hangs after trying to display the additional material. If I have any success with future experiments I'll let you know.

Anyway, the Ubuntu Mini 12 is great. No, I don't mean you want to do massive computing tasks, but for high availability wireless web access this thing is great. The screen is very bright. The size and quality of the display is very nice. I've added a "cookie swapping" add-on to Firefox so I can switch user profiles on the fly.

In all, even though I bought this thing hoping I'd be able to trade Forex with it, I still love it even though it seems that I won't be able to. There will surely be upgrades in the future, better processors and more memory, which might make it available. I'll probably upgrade and continue the quest for a long battery life wireless trading platform.

UPDATE: It does work. Read this post to find out what I did...

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

MT4 EA: Stupid Programming Mistakes

Well, I spent last evening tracking down some problems in my next foray into programming expert advisers.

It turns our that a simple logical test was using an '&' instead of an '&&' between two terms.

This little horseshoe nail caused some position closing attempts to fail with an error 138 -- meaning that the price being used to close the position was too far away from the market price.

I also ran into the example code for iHighest() again. The example shows it implemented with High[iHighest()] when you generally may want iHigh(...,...iHighest()) instead.

In all, I find programming in MT4 a bit frustrating. Sure, sure, hard core programmers may blame me for being imperfect, but it's time programmers realized that humans are imperfect. I know -- I program for a living.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

MT4 EA: Moving Towards Sustainability

Yesterday's experiments with creating an expert advisor to scalp the 5 minute chart show great profits and great risk.

I've been working to reduce the level of risk without taking away the reasonable chance of making reasonable profits.

Here is the most recent chart:

This is running from 01-Feb-2009 to 25-Apr-2009 and obviously surviving any ups and downs during that period.

I'm still not happy with the relative size of the larger draw downs. I believe I can tune it but I'll want to add back aggressiveness or the growth will start to drop more than I'd like.

... continuing ...

Alright, I'm in danger of curve fitting, but I've tuned the advisor to take less risk and earn less profit. However, right now, the earnings curve is getting near ideal. The draw down is acceptable and the profits are around $4,000 per month. Of course, remember that this is all somewhat theoretical and running in a test environment.

The question on my mind is whether or not I can somehow turn up profits without creating larger draw down. It's not easy but I'll fool around some more and see where I end up.

... continuing ...

Increasing aggressiveness did not help. Various other modifications were also unsuccessful.

I've run this starting 01-Nov-2008 and it dies a horrible death. This is not surprising, but it does imply you'd need to know when things were going horribly and stop it. If you are able to manually ascertain that the market should only be moving upwards then this EA should do okay. It only opens long positions.

Is it (ea 2009-04-m5-6.mq4) worth a try?

Saturday, April 25, 2009

MT4 EA: Aggressive 5 Minute Scalper

Well, it's the weekend, what else is a grown man to do?

I had an inspiration for an (overly) aggressive expert advisor today. Basically, it's a simple buy low and sell high machine using oscillators.

Scope out the chart. It does fairly well for a period of time and then when the market finds it's achilles heel it is undone.

All is not lost. I have some ideas for improving the aggression factor as well as tinkering with it's currently abysmal "take a loss" strategy.

... continuing ...

Theoretically, you could take out $1,000 per day and end up with more money than you started with. It ran for 20 days (01-Apr to 20-Apr) before it's massive death spiral.

... continuing ...

Check this out. By adding a pending purchase system to delay early purchases until the price is a bit better as well as turning off loss sales (a bad strategy to be fixed up soon) we get the following.

The balance, actually I mean equity, is over $77,800 by the 16th in this run. Certainly more profitable than last time around. If we can get an intelligent way to cut losses we might be able to reduce the risk of catastrophe.

... continuing ...

I'm also running on various different time periods to make sure I'm not just optimizing for a certain month. That would not be good.

... continuing ...

Okay, after some tinkering, the system is living through a three month period, but obviously there is a tradeoff involved:

This is 01-Feb-2009 through 25-Apr-2009. There are a couple of scary draw down events and a final equity of around $56,000. So, again, in theory, at about $15,000 of profit per month you could withdraw about $500 every day and calculate the likelihood of scarfing away more than $10,000 before the system has a fatal event.

Unfortunately, removing equity will make it more likely to crash during a draw down situation. Perhaps withdraw at a slower pace? More realistically, I'd like to find a predictor for the draw down events and reduce them. This would reduce overall profit but perhaps the system could trade more aggressively if the draw down situations could be avoided.

Time to look at the reports to find the important dates and then look at the historic data in various time frames.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

GBPUSD: A Drunken Sailor

The cable, as the GBPUSD is called, looks like drunken sailor.

The chart is all over the map, with massive daily swings lined up one after the other all over the place.

There are some pips to be made in there!

I'm not generally trading the GBPUSD, but I'm going to put a few moments into figuring out whether my AUDJPY chart set up seems applicable.

It's hard to resist all that volatility.

AUDJPY: Tweezer Top?

The market has about 6 minutes to change it's mind.

If it doesn't, this is going to look like a tweezer top on the 1 hour.

Now, that would be something I'd consider bearish (I originally typed bullish).

If you read my last post... you know I'd like that to happen!

Now about 4 minutes left.

Zzzz. No market reaction on the hour.

Maybe the tails weren't long enough -- or I'm too impatient?

... continuing ...

I am finally seeing some downward movement though it is much later and much slower than I'd have expected:

Hurray... I guess.

AUDJPY: Short On Failure?

It might be time to think about shorting the AUDJPY.

It's coming up to a recent high and might not have a lot of legs left.

If we get a decent failure there could be a shorting opportunity for some part of this evening.

See (on the 1 hour)?

Let's keep an eye on this...

... continuing ...

Down on the 1 minute chart we seem to have some resistance to get through before we have the ability to drop:

... continuing ...

Still on the 1 minute:

It's working the support and resistance (for now).

... continuing ...

This might, and I stress might, constitute a break of support in the 1 minute. The reason I'd consider it significant is that the 15 minute and 1 hour have strong stochastic and RSI values which may be ready to reverse soon.

Still watching.

... continuing ...

If I haven't messed up the lines we are definitely drawing outside of them on the 1 minute at this point:

Will it fire? The bollinger collapse is generally indicative that it will decide on a direction before too long. Don't forget, this is the 1 minute, so a move may not be all that huge unless it's the start of a move in a higher time frame.

... continuing ...

The 15 minute chart doesn't offer much encouragement:

We definitely have to see something conclusive to know what's going to happen. You could always straddle it -- though you'd risk a whipsaw.

... continuing ...

A quick spike, shown on the 15 minute chart, will tempt you to decide:

No failure here yet. Doesn't look promising does it?

I'm not giving up on the potential for this opportunity yet as each of my charts, the 1 minute, the 15 minute and the 1 hour, are all sitting around overbought levels. If the price doesn't get above it's recent high we could see a pullback.

And, yes, of course it could decide to blow right through resistance and throw the short idea to the scrap heap.

... continuing ...

Only 15 minutes left before the hourly chart moves to a new candlestick. This would be a good time for the market to decide what to do. If we hold at this price, but don't go much higher, then the stochastic and RSI would be in a real good position to roll over.

Still watching.

... continuing ...

Gah, no movement at all makes me paranoid! Here's the look of the 1 hour chart at the moment:

We have a touch... similar to an earlier touch that lead to a decline. This touch happens to be lower. We could get some movement. No promises, but we could.

... continuing ...

I'm not the only person thinking this. Here, on the 1 minute, you can see the downward drift as we near the turn of the hour:

Still no promises... maybe it's a feint.

... continuing ...

This, on the 1 hour chart, looks bearish to me. If it is, it could still take a hours to be clear:

Maybe I'll develop more patience through trading?

Perhaps the real move is based on a possible upside down head and shoulders pattern?

Nobody can really say.

Why am I following this idea? Well, if it's right, and it works out as good as might possibly be expected, it could end up being worth about 100 pips. That's worth a little bit of work. If I'm wrong, well, I lose a few pips if I'm tricked into thinking I'm right.

... continuing ...

It's looking a bit robust on the 1 hour:

Did I mention I love my new screen clipping tool?

... continuing ...

You know, if we continue to sit around and do nothing, except maybe fall just a little, we could end up with a tweezer top on the 1 hour:

Now, that I'd find bearish!

... continuing ...

The latest 1 hour looks a bit more promising -- not sure how long it will stay that way of course:

I'm going to buy myself a beer if I end up having read the short on failure action correctly.

... continuing ...

Well, shoot, a shiny new tweezer top type setup and no reaction. The tails must not be long enough. Stupid market, trix are for kids!

.. continuing ...

Just to finish off this post -- I have finally seen movement:

The lack of immediate gratification, and the lack of robust response, has taken some of the joy out of being somewhat correct.

AUDJPY: Morning Peek

Well, first, I can't believe I'm awake this early after such a long night. I need to hone my craft and trade for a living -- I'd be able to keep better hours.

Anyway, this morning we have the follow up to last nights analysis.

We're looking at what appears to be a double bottom with no idea whether or not we'll reap the technical rewards that they can offer.

Since I slept through the last several hours I don't yet have a handle on what I want to do as of yet. Maybe waking up will help.

AUDJPY: Look Who's Consolidating

Well, I should be sleeping, but since I'm not I thought I'd take another look at the charts.

Guess what -- it's the same chart but I see something new!

Okay, sure, a bit more time has passed. However, with the added points I clearly see that we seem to be consolidating.

There should be some money to be made while we bounce around... and then some money to be made when a direction is chosen.

As ever, things can change anytime... ;)

... continuing ...

Speaking of change:

AUDJPY: Did We Bounce?

My last blog post, audjpy decision point, talked about an upcoming decision point. At the moment it looks like we are going to begin an upward leg.

I'm feeling particularly cautious at the moment, especially since this is only on the 15 minute chart, but I thought I'd post it.

Notice the last candlestick:

As I'm long term bullish on AUDJPY let's hope this is the beginning, or perhaps resumption, of an upward trend. However, I must point out that the 1 day chart is not very promising.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

AUDJPY: Decision Point

I'm looking at the 3HR chart at the moment. We seem to be looking at an impending strike on a recent support line.

If this resistance holds we might have a technical setup that would allow for a nice gain.

Take a look:

See how there was something of a W shape starting in the middle of the 19th? See how the chart is currently on the second touch down of a second W? If we bounce off the support line and "fire" the technical pattern, we could be in for another move towards the upper end of 72.

... continuing ...

However, be warned, the 1HR looks like a head and shoulders pattern riding along the support line:

... continuing ...

The 15 minute chart looks promising:

The question, as ever, is whether or not this will be backed up by future results.

... continuing ...

Also on the 15 minute chart:

Sure. Now what? It's always the nature of the game, risk vs opportunity.

Monday, April 20, 2009

AUDJPY: Waiting For The Trend To Break

I often think that evening trading goes through a period of doldrums. It gets boring. Things move slowly, if at all. Ten pips gain or loss can take an hour or more to happen.


At the moment, as you can see by the chart below, I'm waiting for the current trendlet to break:

This is a 1MIN chart, hence the "trendlet" concept.

AUDJPY: Decision Point

After the downward move, see the last post, we are now poised to either bounce off the previous low or sink down.

In other words, either result provides opportunity.

Here's another snap of the 1MIN showing the AUDJPY bouncing just above the recent low of 68.06 (as shown by the yellow support lines drawn under the candlesticks).

Take a look, make your call, set a good stop if you know how...

... continuing ...

We've got another little uptrend going. No telling whether or not we're going to get very far or not.

I've got an in-profit stop loss riding along with this to see how things turn out.

AUDJPY: The Bounce At 68.06

I was watching the AUDJPY as it slid downward today.

As you might expect it was following a nice trend on the way down. It's currently following a nice trend line on the way up too.

Here's a 1MIN chart showing the upward movement from the 68.06 bounce.

I don't really place a lot of stock (heh, bad pun) in the 1MIN but it's interesting nonetheless.

... continuing ...

This is getting more interesting:

A trend line break means it's time to keep our eyes open.

... continuing ...

The AUDJPY prevaricates:

I don't show my complete setup on my snips, but I've got some stochastic and RSI evidence that we could be due for some selling. As ever, it doesn't mean it will happen, but it certainly could.

... continuing ...

I always like it when I'm able to call and catch a decision point. It's not that I expect to be right... just that it's time to make some decisions:

If you are making money because of me, don't forget to donate, if not -- why the heck aren't you? I'm not giving you signals, I'm giving you a heads up for high probability moments.

Forex Analysis Post-Review

Well, did anyone notice what happened based on the forex analysis I posted over the weekend.

The EURUSD, posted here, indeed moved upwards a bit before resuming it's downtrend.

The AUDJPY, posted here, with a followup here, broke it's support line and henceforth fell like a stone.

Nice. While I obviously am not able to say which way it will go in advance, it seems I was able to pinpoint the action points well enough (in advance) for you to catch some serious pips.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

AUDJPY: Breaking Trend?

Though I'm a bit leery of Sunday price action it looks like a fairly long term support line is being broken.

This could be interesting.

... continuing ...

Looking closer, this may not yet be a break, as there have been previous "breaks" which gives us a bit of leeway here. A redraw based on a previous "break" leaves a bit of breathing room still.

... continuing ...

Waking up at 5:30am I see that while I may have a long term bullish expectation it looks like we've had and/or are having some downward movement. I'm not going to look very closely right now -- I need to get back to sleep.

AUDJPY: Weekend Analysis

If you've been following along you'll notice that I keep mentioning that I am long term bullish on the AUDJPY.

One of the reasons is that I think we've seen the worst of the panic and risk aversion. Another reason is that I think we're now closer to a recovery and following period of economic expansion than a lot of people expect.

Given these two thoughts, and the following chart, it's easy to see why I expect a slow return to higher AUDJPY prices;

However, what appears to be a large double bottom over a period of months does little to tell us what the price will be doing in the short term. The following 3HR chart shows us that we might be at a critical juncture:

The resistance line is spot on since early March. The support line is a bit spottier and appears to be in the midst of being tested. If you've kept your powder dry this might be a good time to figure out how to play upcoming moves over the next week.

Flipping to the one hour we see the consolidation trend that I was talking about at the end of last week:

Given my overall expectation of a long term upward trend, and the fact that the lower line in the 1HR has been active for a couple months, I'm apt to speculate on a new leg in the upward journey.

Don't forget, if you make big bucks because of my blog, feel free to hit the donate button. If you lose your shirt, you are on your own! ;)

Saturday, April 18, 2009

EURUSD: Weekend Analysis

I don't generally trade the EURUSD but since it's the weekend I seem to have some extra time on my hands.

Here are a series of charts, in varying timeframes, that I'd use to get a general feel for this currency pair.

First, let's look at the 1D chart to see what's happened over the long term. I've compressed the chart a fair amount in order to get it to fit into a single snapshot -- you should be able to click to expand the image:

EURUSD 1hr Jul 08 to Apr 09
First, notice that over this period there has been an apparent double bottom. In fact, I've drawn a trend line to help identify this. As well, the currency pair has not yet broken above a resistance line drawn from the middle of July until now. In the big picture I'd expect the price to bounce around between these lines until a major news event or until the lines have converged.

Frankly, I'm not sure what will happen to the Eurozone or North America with respect to economic growth and interest rates, so I refuse to try to call which direction a long term breakout will go. However, that doesn't mean you can't speculate on either or both directions.

Moving to the 3HR, below, it looks like we might be able to fall a bit, but more importantly, we've broken a recent support point:

Notice the horizontal yellow support line that has been breached? If I were going to put money into this market I'd be thinking that we've got some room to drop. Don't get me wrong, it certainly doesn't have to, but often a support or resistance breach is a prelude to further movement in that direction.

On the 1HR chart, I see something that looks like a setup to me. See how the price appears unwilling to break the lower red support line? If I were going to play EURUSD I might wait to see if the currency makes it's way back to upper resistance line and then short the pair:

It's easy to call shots on the weekend and obviously when the markets open on Sunday this could all be trash due to news of some type. However, until things get shifted in some major way I'd either try to counter-trend a long position back upwards or simply wait for the short setup that seems suggested after a move back up.

Finally, this is not advice, and I could very well be completely out to lunch. However, this is my take on the situation. You should simply consider this one interpretation. Obvious weak points, from other points of view, are previous highs and lows as resistance levels, Fibonacci points, and so on.

AUDJPY: Weekend Recap

I don't really have anything new to add since Forex markets are closed for the weekend.

We are still constrained within what appears to be a consolidation pattern. We are approaching the end of the pattern and the bollinger bands on my 1hr chart are collapsing.

I've also got a nifty new screen snipping tool that I wanted to try out... ;)

400x265 snip
While I do remain long term bullish there is a lot of noise in the markets about a need for correction given the recent run on wall street. A correction, or a return to risk aversion, has a high probability of forcing down the AUDJPY.

Friday, April 17, 2009

AUDJPY: Collapsing Bollinger

The range of price movements has been shrinking.

Or, as generally considered from a technical analysis point of view, the bollinger bands are collapsing.

Your guess is as good as mine as to the direction it will go, but usually when the bollinger bands collapse the currency will have completed it's consolidation and start a reasonable move up or down.

Given that it's a Friday I'd have to say be cautious. If people are nervous going into the weekend then they are likely to choose risk aversion, which is negative for carry trades.

My view... wait and see.

AUDJPY: Now What?

Well, we didn't really do much at all yesterday after bouncing off of a support line a couple of times.

What does this mean?

This means that the AUDJPY currency pair isn't currently behaving in a way that makes it easy to interpret. This means that we need to be careful.

I have no idea what the market will do... except that it will either go up or down at some point.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

AUDJPY: Some Upward Movement

Finally, after suggesting all day long that I'm looking for upward movement it's finally here.

How long will it last? Who knows. Will it hit the top of my so-called consolidation zone? Don't know.

Anyway, here's the latest from my chart...

Look, It's Going Up
I'll be happiest if the pair zooms up like a rocket, but I'll lock in some profit if we get close to the resistance line.

AUDJPY: Still In Consolidation Range

I didn't have time to post another update during the day, but things have been pretty slow anyway.

Here you can see that the AUDJPY has not yet broken out of the trend lines (that I have shown in early charts).

I'm not sure what is going to happen during the Asian session, but as ever, I'm hoping for some bullish action.

See The Bounce?
I'm sure you can see the market honoring the trend line by bouncing off it?

AUDJPY: Slow Decline

I'm sitting here watching the slow, achingly slow, decline in the AUDJPY.

Based on RSI and stochastic evidence, not shown on the image below, it's very possible that we'll get an upturn soon.

Anyway, this image shows you that we are continuing to approach what I've called a containment field. It represents a possible consolidation zone while the market tries to figure out whether to ultimately head north or south.

Collision Alert!
Obviously, I'm bullish on the AUDJPY so I expect this to bounce. A lot of other people, on Twitter or elsewhere, seem to be bearish.

... continuing ...

If we do get a solid bounce, you'll notice that we'll have a double bottom in the right side of a W shape. I'd generally expect this to be bullish, but we have to figure that we'll be going into the Asian session before long. One possibility is a trouncing of the Yen while another is an increase in risk aversion -- generally bad for carry trades.

AUDJPY: Don't Cross The Streams!

It looks like we are going to test the containment of the possible AUDJPY consolidation zone I mentioned previously.

Frankly, I had expected the market to hold up better to the news concerning jobs and housing, but then, if I could accurately predict what would happen I wouldn't be speculating would I?

In any case, if we get an upward bounce around 70.75 - 70.85 then we are still in what I consider the containment zone. This doesn't prove anything, but it does mean the lines on my chart are still useful guidelines for suggesting entry and exit points.

What I'm Looking At
If it doesn't hold, then we'll see about retesting some recent lows.

Each of them gives us a possible bounce point or release down to the next possible support point.

AUDJPY: Risk Aversion

It's likely, with the bad jobs and housing starts news this morning, that risk aversion will come into play.

Basically, the AUDJPY is a good indicator of fear in the markets these days.

With all that said, I'm still going to watch closely for a bounce of the potential support line. That is likely to be the point that the market decides to rally or collapse for the day.

... continuing ...

I don't see that the market was pricing in a recovery already. There are starting to be some signs that things aren't in a free-fall. The fact that jobs and housing starts aren't good should be a surprise to nobody.

Anyway, what I'm suggesting is that the news may look bad to those that started to buy into a recent rash of good news, but realistically, anyone who knows anything about markets should be waiting on the sidelines to swoop in.

Oops, you can see my upward bias showing again can't you?

AUDJPY: Possible Consolidation?

It's nearly 9:00am EST and we didn't drop low enough to get a real double bottom. We may have begun a consolidation process between 73.50 and 70.25 while the market figures out whether the next move is up or down.

We'll have to see whether we continue to have lower highs and higher lows.

If we are consolidating, then it's not hard to spot the support and resistance lines that will be likely to provide opportune long and short entry points.

In short, opportunities for doubles, possible consolidation, and so on. Personally, I have a long term upward bias -- so take any of my opinions with that grain of salt.

EDIT: By the way, I'm generally looking at the 1hr when doing analysis.

AUDJPY: Long Entry Decision

I've been having some success calling the shots on the AUDJPY charts.

This morning we've been having a correction from yesterday's highs. While I've been hearing scuttlebutt on twitter concerning shorting the carry trades, I remain upward biased.

My view, the current drop in price is setting us up for a possible double bottom or simply a W shaped chart. Simultaneously, I do see some stochastic and RSI confirmation that this is likely.

So, I'd suggest keeping an eye on the movement. We are at or are approaching a long entry decision point.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

AUDJPY: Rebound

Sweet. I've got a support line around ~70.60 that is approximately where the market bounced back into upward movement.

If you follow my ramblings on Twitter you'll see me making noises about a rebound in the works... and it came about while I was asleep.

It's a very good feeling to have the market respect your charts and signals. Too bad it doesn't happen all that often.

No time to look into things this morning. However, there's two obvious notions, either a retest at the top or a reversal and retest at the bottom of our recent downward move.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

AUDJPY: Risk vs Opportunity

Today we see the crux of the issue.

The AUDJPY has suffered a pullback. A return to recent highs gives us the possibility of a double top. A bounce off the recent low gives us the possibility of the a double bottom. There may be more complex structures at play as well, but you get the idea.

This is risk point. This is an opportunity point.

If you get in, say with a long position right now, you don't know if it will turn around. You don't know if the recent upward trend will survive. Sure, you'll set a stop, but you don't really want to throw money away at stops needlessly.

You have to look for clues as to the market's probable direction. For example, you might notice a pattern on the candlestick chart, the stochastic, RSI, or perhaps some other indicator.

I'm long term bullish, but that doesn't mean the market can't confound me long enough to relieve me of my money if I'm foolish about it. There's an opportunity out there right now. Who's going to figure out what it is and who's going to suffer a loss for it?

Hey, seriously, there is no shame in staying on the sidelines and waiting for whatever signals you follow if there aren't any there now.

EDIT: By the way, I see the price dropping below support, so I think we're going to see a bit of downward action before we return to optimism.

Monday, April 13, 2009

AUDJPY: Forex Recap

It was a good day to be long AUDJPY.

We're in a bit of a pullback right now. Obviously, this is either a great time to get in or it's the start of a downturn.

That's how it works!

I'm willing to take a nibble...

Bullish on AUDJPY

At the moment things are looking bullish for the AUDJPY.

I popped in another small position a few moments ago and so far it's been north from there. If things turn around I'll wait for a good low and then play the game where I replace higher longs with lower longs.

Obviously, though I don't expect another huge currency collapse, I'll still have to play it cautiously. You never can tell what might happen.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Poised For The Pop

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I have been working on sinking some smaller positions while the AUDJPY was going sideways (or suffering a slow decline).

Today is the day that this bears fruit. Trading lower positions for higher positions now has me with some sunk positions that I can unload at a decent profit as the AUDJPY continues to spike.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Was That My Correction?

A few days ago I was saying that perhaps the AUDJPY would pull back after it's very fast rise up into the 71.xx range.

It continued rising to somewhere around 72.80 instead. However, early last night it was bumping down around the 70.00 mark. Was that my correction?

My three hour (I trade with Oanda) shows leg room all the way to 68.xx if it's thinking about correcting.

That's the trick with Forex trading, you never really know whether it's done going in any particular direction or if it's just throwing you a feint.

What can I say? Roll with the punches.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Riding the AUDJPY Sideways

So, it looks like we've had several days of sideways motion on the charts. I don't mind at all.

As long as you buy on the low end and sell on the high end these are good times to play in the market too.

For periods of non-trending action I like to watch the stochastic and RSI indicators. The stochastic are reasonable but they do give a ton of false signals. The RSI can help corroborate their action a little bit.

Something I like to do, especially because I continue to expect a long term upward trend, is buy a long position and see what happens. If the movement is what I like to call rational, I'm willing to buy another below it. When the higher of the two long positions is profitable, I'll sell it.

This effectively replaces my higher position and makes it harder for the market to dislodge me with a downward spike. Then, because I do expect the market to go up over the long term, if it does, I can potentially have multiple well placed positions just waiting to reap in the gains.

However, as with anything, it's harder than it sounds and you'll want to use small position sizes.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

AUDJPY Popped To 72.30

Though I had expected a downturn before the pop... the long flat period today in the 71.xx range clued me in to a possible spike.

When the 15 min bollinger bands tightened up and the price popped above it, the clinch was in.

I hopped on with a couple tiny positions, nearly instantly protected by stop losses, and grabbed a few pips on the spike.

Now the question is, will the uptrend continue or will I get my correction. The way things seem to work it may take a double top to get that correction.

Let's wait and see...

Catching The Run To 71.00

Did you ride the recent run in the AUDJPY to 71?

I was lucky enough to grab and hold a chunk at 65.62 and I'm pondering whether or not I want to let it go.

We've just had a double top on the 15 minute chart. The 1 hour is oversold. I think we are going to get some bounces upward due to exuberance, but it seems about time for a pullback.

I've sold off the nibbles I also acquired on the way up. I think I'll try to sink my chunk. I'd really like to have some sunken carry trade chunks earning interest and I am long term bullish on the AUDJPY.

Be ready for a drop, perhaps today, likely before the weekend.