Thursday, April 23, 2009

AUDJPY: Short On Failure?

It might be time to think about shorting the AUDJPY.

It's coming up to a recent high and might not have a lot of legs left.

If we get a decent failure there could be a shorting opportunity for some part of this evening.

See (on the 1 hour)?

Let's keep an eye on this...

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Down on the 1 minute chart we seem to have some resistance to get through before we have the ability to drop:

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Still on the 1 minute:

It's working the support and resistance (for now).

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This might, and I stress might, constitute a break of support in the 1 minute. The reason I'd consider it significant is that the 15 minute and 1 hour have strong stochastic and RSI values which may be ready to reverse soon.

Still watching.

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If I haven't messed up the lines we are definitely drawing outside of them on the 1 minute at this point:

Will it fire? The bollinger collapse is generally indicative that it will decide on a direction before too long. Don't forget, this is the 1 minute, so a move may not be all that huge unless it's the start of a move in a higher time frame.

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The 15 minute chart doesn't offer much encouragement:

We definitely have to see something conclusive to know what's going to happen. You could always straddle it -- though you'd risk a whipsaw.

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A quick spike, shown on the 15 minute chart, will tempt you to decide:

No failure here yet. Doesn't look promising does it?

I'm not giving up on the potential for this opportunity yet as each of my charts, the 1 minute, the 15 minute and the 1 hour, are all sitting around overbought levels. If the price doesn't get above it's recent high we could see a pullback.

And, yes, of course it could decide to blow right through resistance and throw the short idea to the scrap heap.

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Only 15 minutes left before the hourly chart moves to a new candlestick. This would be a good time for the market to decide what to do. If we hold at this price, but don't go much higher, then the stochastic and RSI would be in a real good position to roll over.

Still watching.

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Gah, no movement at all makes me paranoid! Here's the look of the 1 hour chart at the moment:

We have a touch... similar to an earlier touch that lead to a decline. This touch happens to be lower. We could get some movement. No promises, but we could.

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I'm not the only person thinking this. Here, on the 1 minute, you can see the downward drift as we near the turn of the hour:

Still no promises... maybe it's a feint.

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This, on the 1 hour chart, looks bearish to me. If it is, it could still take a hours to be clear:

Maybe I'll develop more patience through trading?

Perhaps the real move is based on a possible upside down head and shoulders pattern?

Nobody can really say.

Why am I following this idea? Well, if it's right, and it works out as good as might possibly be expected, it could end up being worth about 100 pips. That's worth a little bit of work. If I'm wrong, well, I lose a few pips if I'm tricked into thinking I'm right.

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It's looking a bit robust on the 1 hour:

Did I mention I love my new screen clipping tool?

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You know, if we continue to sit around and do nothing, except maybe fall just a little, we could end up with a tweezer top on the 1 hour:

Now, that I'd find bearish!

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The latest 1 hour looks a bit more promising -- not sure how long it will stay that way of course:

I'm going to buy myself a beer if I end up having read the short on failure action correctly.

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Well, shoot, a shiny new tweezer top type setup and no reaction. The tails must not be long enough. Stupid market, trix are for kids!

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Just to finish off this post -- I have finally seen movement:

The lack of immediate gratification, and the lack of robust response, has taken some of the joy out of being somewhat correct.

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