Sunday, April 26, 2009

MT4 EA: Moving Towards Sustainability

Yesterday's experiments with creating an expert advisor to scalp the 5 minute chart show great profits and great risk.

I've been working to reduce the level of risk without taking away the reasonable chance of making reasonable profits.

Here is the most recent chart:

This is running from 01-Feb-2009 to 25-Apr-2009 and obviously surviving any ups and downs during that period.

I'm still not happy with the relative size of the larger draw downs. I believe I can tune it but I'll want to add back aggressiveness or the growth will start to drop more than I'd like.

... continuing ...

Alright, I'm in danger of curve fitting, but I've tuned the advisor to take less risk and earn less profit. However, right now, the earnings curve is getting near ideal. The draw down is acceptable and the profits are around $4,000 per month. Of course, remember that this is all somewhat theoretical and running in a test environment.

The question on my mind is whether or not I can somehow turn up profits without creating larger draw down. It's not easy but I'll fool around some more and see where I end up.

... continuing ...

Increasing aggressiveness did not help. Various other modifications were also unsuccessful.

I've run this starting 01-Nov-2008 and it dies a horrible death. This is not surprising, but it does imply you'd need to know when things were going horribly and stop it. If you are able to manually ascertain that the market should only be moving upwards then this EA should do okay. It only opens long positions.

Is it (ea 2009-04-m5-6.mq4) worth a try?

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