Sunday, April 19, 2009

AUDJPY: Weekend Analysis

If you've been following along you'll notice that I keep mentioning that I am long term bullish on the AUDJPY.

One of the reasons is that I think we've seen the worst of the panic and risk aversion. Another reason is that I think we're now closer to a recovery and following period of economic expansion than a lot of people expect.

Given these two thoughts, and the following chart, it's easy to see why I expect a slow return to higher AUDJPY prices;

However, what appears to be a large double bottom over a period of months does little to tell us what the price will be doing in the short term. The following 3HR chart shows us that we might be at a critical juncture:

The resistance line is spot on since early March. The support line is a bit spottier and appears to be in the midst of being tested. If you've kept your powder dry this might be a good time to figure out how to play upcoming moves over the next week.

Flipping to the one hour we see the consolidation trend that I was talking about at the end of last week:

Given my overall expectation of a long term upward trend, and the fact that the lower line in the 1HR has been active for a couple months, I'm apt to speculate on a new leg in the upward journey.

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