Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Forex Carry Trade Bottom?

I'm probably never going to try to call a bottom, but I will point out that there is a difference in behavior since the recent panic drop. Now, we see the Yen based carry pairs bouncing off a resistance point instead of simply dropping as if they are in free-fall.

What am I doing about it?

I'm glad you asked. My current trading activity involves playing with a bit of a gridding strategy. When the price gets down near the recent resistance point I'll place limit buy orders above the price. This means that if the price rises I'll start filling orders. These orders have a small take profit zone so I won't have to worry about accumulating many positions, or risk, but I'll make an okay profit if the price decides to bounce back and forth for a while.

I've booked small amounts of incremental profit this evening in the EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY markets. Admittedly, the profit is very small per trade. However, if the price continues to rise and fall I'll be able to take that same small slice of profit during each cycle. It adds up!

Interestingly, if the price drops, I'll just extend my grids downward and catch whatever eventual upturn arises.

Don't forget, I like to accumulate long-term carry trade positions at what are apparent low points. I make sure not to overextend my account so that the sum of my open positions are not large enough to put my account at risk. So, if I end up holding on to some grid based trades for the longer term, I am fine with that.

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