Friday, November 2, 2007

Trending the 5 min AUDJPY

I've been having a great time spotting trends on the AUDJPY today. Well, of course, I have to point out that trends are good until they change. However, with that out of the way, I've been able to pick up some trends, identify channels, and generally advance my knowledge and confidence quite a bit.

Sure, sure, I know, everyone can float in a rising tide, but check the charts today, things have been a bit choppy!

It's a powerful thing to see prices bounce off the "walls" of your trend lines for two or three hours. While maybe only an illusion this gives you the ability to enter and exit trades with a feeling of control. Well, a semblence of expectation at the very least.

Similarly, there is a chess-like pattern to this dance. If you've got a gain, there is going to be a drop. If you've seen a quick drop, there is going to be a gain. These aren't truisms, but you can rely on one of two things. If you have a long position, and the short term average is under the price, the price will either hit the other side of the trend line, or your position will improve in profitability.

When you can start to see some inevitibilities, while a trend holds, you can start to plan, have enough confidence to hold aside both greed and fear, and reap profits while the market stays rational. When it falls apart, it's time to start looking for the patterns in the sea of chaos...

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