AUDJPY: Signs Of A Bottom?

First, I have to warn you, I'm eternally bullish on the AUDJPY. This means I'm wrong on my predictions a fair amount due to my long term viewpoint.

With that said, I've noticed a chart sign that implies some possible upward movement.

Take a look:


It may not be easy to see, but notice how the recent tails, at 09:00, under the last few candlesticks did not project below the closing prices during a recent, at 03:00, previous low?

Up until now, for days now, we'd see the close of each new low at the level of the tails of previous lows. This doesn't mean we can't go further down -- especially during the Asian session. However, it does mean that we have the potential to be running out of downward pressure.

If so, whether it is short lived or not will depend on upcoming news and the impact this has on the sentiment of traders. As you know the political unrest in the US and the tightening in China has set the mood negative lately.

UPDATE: Boom. Instant downward movement to invalidate my sign. The fact it showed temporarily may hint at trend weakening. We do have a fair amount of gloom and momentum to work through.

UPDATE: It's now 23:00 and AUDJPY has just risen to just under 81.60 which would seem to suggest that downward pressure had indeed been flagging. Of course, nothing goes straight up or straight down... but trading 100+ point moves is rather nice.

AUDJPY: Poised?

I don't have time to snip a chart or anything, however I'd suggest taking a few moments to analyze the AUDJPY.

What I see is the potential for a so-called "big W" on the 3 hour chart. You'll notice the right side of the W has a double bottom. If we do get the full "big W" we should see some dramatic upward movement over the week.

Fundamentally, inflation, employment and other indicators in Australia seem to indicate the need for the RBA to continue to increase rates. If any more hot growth news comes out prior to February we may see speculation on a 50 basis point increase instead of the widely expected 25 basis points.

In summary, look for a safe low-risk entry point if your analysis of the charts agrees (or even disagrees) with mine.

UPDATE: If you disagreed with me you'd be happy with this morning's (Jan 20) breakdown... though so far the next resistance point seems to have held.

AUDJPY: Technical Analysis

Well, my posts are few and far between these days.

In case anyone else is still following long here is some good information on the 3hr AUDJPY.

We have a nice symmetric triangle going all the way back to November 25th.

See?


I'm expecting this to break (upward) and then run into a downward sloping resistance line on the 1d AUDJPY. However, we'll have to wait and see. I've been wrong (more than a few times) before.

UPDATE: Here we have the price dropping, on the 1hr, giving us a good entry point. We can easily set a stop loss relatively close while targeting the upper boundary for profit. However, as there was news earlier, we may find that the support line yields to changed market expectations.


UPDATE: The bar isn't closed on the 1hr but it's almost 11:00pm ET and it looks like we are breaking downward at the moment.

Challenging Times

While I realize the world went through a bit of an unwind, before and after the Dubai incident, I've been busy with work and family issues instead.

Things have just been incredibly busy!

In any case, what with the volatility and unwinding that has been going on it's probably a good time to be inactive. I did manage to blow up my small discretionary account (my robots are far better traders than I am) but that's insignificant.

However, the big news, from my own point of view, is that I have some tweaks for my up-and-coming robot. Basically, I need it to detect a downward slide quickly and then decide not to waste it's risk capital on redundant positions.

Maybe I'll have some time to do some blogging and tweaking this week?

Trading Week Recap

I've been leery of letting BREAD (my primary trading robot) trade too much. I suspect prior tweaks have it taking too much risk. As such I kept it on a short leash and it only earned 0.9% for the week. Perhaps I'll have time to make some adjustments over the weekend.

On the discretionary front I was back down to a more reasonable 13% this week. Last week's 34% was probably some type of market movement vs trading style confluence. These thing happen.

In other news I have a new Bollinger Band based robot in the works. An early version of it was trading this week -- earning almost %1 as well. More trials and adjustments to look forward to!

UPDATE: No time to do anything Forex related this weekend.

AUDJPY: Ominously Flat

I'm looking at a short term chart, but the lack of volatility suggests that something is in the air.

Even with the recent good news from China things have been relatively lethargic.

The daily chart is also showing the potential to have a few down days.

This seems like a good time to manage risk.

UPDATE: This evening, while I was on the road, I see that we had a nice spike upwards, hitting my take-profit points and leaving me flat. Nice.

AUDJPY: Support Becomes Resistance

My last post showed a profitable overnight setup based on a week long support line on the 1hr chart.

Here, I've got an example of a support becoming resistance once it has been violated.

Take a look at the following 15min chart:


See the violation around 9:00pm last night? As an aside, this was a good point to try a well protected short. Overnight we tested a longer term support line (see my previous two posts) which held.

Finally, notice that recently this previous support line held as resistance just before 6:00am. I do expect it to be violated as the longer term support held -- but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

AUDJPY: Price Alert

Since I'm awake I thought I'd point out a price alert.

The AUDJPY currency pair is testing a support line.

A long tail break (closing on or above the support line) would still be a bullish sign.

Anywhere, here's a recent 1hr chart snip.


This is a good place to look for a trade. Good luck.

NOTE: See the previous post... it shows the support line valid since November 1st.

UPDATE: Upon waking this morning I see my take profit was hit and I managed to add 2% to my NAV while sleeping. Honestly, this is quite rare, but a good trendline (one that has been and does get honored again) gives you a well defined opportunity.


See how the violations are "tailed" and the line provides support? I got in at 83.21 at 12:38am and took profit at 83.70 at 5:35am. If I had of been awake I probably would have been nervous during the second testing after 3:00am.

AUDJPY Forecast

What the heck, I may as well jump out on a limb and let you know what I'm seeing with the AUDJPY.

Basically, if you look at the chart, we've had a good support line since the beginning of November.

Now, if I've got the right chart uploaded, take a look below:


Personally, I'd suggest taking a long position when the price approaches the support line. You can set a nearby stop and protect yourself from much by way of downside risk.

The only issue, for me, is that Sunday trading seems a bit wild at times.

UPDATE: Well, I hope somebody played the bounce...


It was worth it.

Trading Week Recap

Since the trading robot, BREAD, was predominantly sidelined for the last couple of weeks I felt the need to do more discretionary trading.

While the capital used wasn't very large it felt great to pull in a 34% increase over the course of the week. If I could scalp like this all the time it would definitely spell the end of the day job. I have dreams of setting up a trading office with spacious rental cubes available for other traders. Rookie's trading pit.

Back to reality, BREAD on the other hand snailed along earning 2.4% and 1.7% over the last two weeks. Sometimes I think I live in Bizarro world when I have disdain for a 100% annualized rate of return...

In any case, I think the long tail of H1N1 recovery has finally come about. I should be able to concentrate both on my day job and on creating new robot strategies during evenings.

Da Signals

It takes a lot of fortitude to use them but I think the signals blog is proving itself useful.

For example, right now we seem to have established a bottom in the recent AUDJPY downward movement.

So, especially under such a condition, we get good results if we see a signal and then look for confirming behavior. Basically, the signals are great lead-ins to a period of analysis.

No, they aren't all useful. As you would expect there will often be signals that are simply useless. The key point is that you don't have to be watching the markets all day long to take advantage of signals. You can simply fire up the charts and issue a yes or no decision several bars after they arrive.