Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Overnight Trading

As I live in the eastern timezone, I get to trade overnight prior to the NY trading session on the next day.

Last night I was able to settle some AUDJPY positions around 96.7, 96.8 or so. At the moment these are nicely profitable while the DOW futures are simultaneously positive.

As far as I can tell, the US trading day pushes around the AUDJPY based on stock market movements. By this, I mean that any established trend can easily be broken as soon as the stock market does not itself follow any such trend. In short, reading your charts and so forth can be pretty misleading at this time.

However, a potential strategy ensues. There are underlying fundamentals based on both the AUD and the JPY. When the US trading day is over, these fundamentals can start to exert themselves on the AUDJPY pair. So, on a heavy US down day, it might make sense to acquire a little bit and hang onto it overnight. Basically, take a small bet. If it moves against you get out, of course, but if it goes your way, put a profitable stop loss under it and hope for a good day in the US.

This will probably be true as long as the US economy and the world economy are still considered to be different entities.

Personally, I take tiny sustainable nibbles on the ride down... getting a little bit of carry action. Then, from time to time, when it seems a bottom is possible (considering that a downward moving DOW pushes down the pair) I'll jump in with larger positions, hoping for that eventual correction or reversal.

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