Thursday, December 20, 2007

Timing Market Entry

I've noticed that the Forex markets move both fast and slow.

If you are busy sinking money into some carry positions, the market might suddenly decide to go sideways, or perhaps down, for the next week. So, you go underwater and don't get to lighten your load on subsequent upswings.

However, if you are light in the market, a piece of news will drop and leave your jaw on the floor as you miss out on a quick 100 pip swing. Obviously, if you play the news, it will come in on the wrong side or the market with interpret it in a way that surprises you in order to throw you under the wheels of the money train.

In short, it's not easy getting into the market safely with any quantity of net asset value.

The problem really arises when you take small bites, getting into the market without risking all that much, and then find out that you were wrong. The market will wiggle around a lot, near your entry price, enticing you into thinking it will eventually recover, and then sink a bit more. If you put in a stop loss, the market will hit that, then bounce back up -- taunting you with a profit that you can't participate in.

It's simply devious.

So, how do you get into the market? How do you accumulate a set of carry positions that are in profit? When do you enter the market? What signals should you be following? As I've noted before, technical analysis of the carry pairs is very tricky, as they are driven by market movements. These pairs are happy to run roughshod over your trend lines any time the markets are euphoric, nervous or calm enough to lure you in.

My suggestion is for you to work out the resistance points. As you approach a resistance point you can see how the pair reacts. If it stops or starts to bounce, you might feel it worthwhile to enter a position. You are basically risking the pip spread plus the distance to your stop loss. You simply have to risk a small amount of capital in order to play.

The key is pick your entry points when you have the best chance of seeing an upturn. It's not easy.

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