Thursday, October 23, 2008

AUDJPY Revisiting Lows

We're down below 63.00 in the AUDJPY market (as I type -- it may bounce).

This appears to be a test of the 5+ year low for this pair... google charts. Are we ready for a bounce and the much awaited eventual upward trend?

Obviously, I have no idea. However, you can be sure I'm sitting here watching the price action as I type.

Right now, we've bounced a bit and are setting up for a possible "tweezer pair" on the 15m chart. I'd consider that bullish if it happens and gets the expected reaction.

UPDATE: 11:15 has passed, we have two tailed candlesticks near the prior bottom, but I don't see the market rebounding as of yet. I have a small long position with a short stop loss very close to the bottom and, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised by a false downward stab to take out my position before any sustained upward movement.

UPDATE: 11:24. We've pushed down a few extra pips, but we haven't snapped through the resistance at this point yet. With a long position on the table I'd like to avoid pushing an extra pip or two as it encourages the bears and increases the risk of overcoming available support.

UPDATE: 11:30. We moved back and forth between a tailed candlestick and closing near the bottom of the candlestick a few times. We ended up with another reasonable tail length -- I guess I shouldn't be calling them "long tails" per se. In any case, if we can get a bit of upward movement after these failed downward pushes it might scare off some bears.

UPDATE: 11:33. I really shouldn't be watching if I wanted a stress free life, but I've got a stop loss in place so this is no big deal. Anyway, we're pushing downwards again, and I'm hoping we can stop a few pips short of the last downward push. Extending by a pip here and there, as we just did again (11:34), greatly raises the risk of a downward breakout. And here it is.. how far will it go?

UPDATE: 11:38. I'm not sure where we can expect to go right at the moment. I'd say that if we don't have commodity prices recovering and/or we don't have global markets moving upwards then we can expect further downward movement towards some as yet to be found bottom.

UPDATE: 11:59. We have what looks to be a nice long tail on the 1hr chart. This could be an interesting development.

UPDATE: 1:27. Another downward break. Presumably not a surprise to most!

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