Tuesday, October 6, 2009

US Economy Heads Up

If you are wondering what is going on with the US economy, this puzzle piece from CNBC will fit in very nicely.What this is saying is that there probably is not a small business collapse in the works due to credit issues. Smaller businesses will simply wait until they see consumer spending before they bother to access credit.

Personally, I am going to suggest that old habits die hard. For all those that did not suffer unemployment, which will be the majority of consumers, the lure of credit and consumption will be waiting for them once confidence returns. As well, they will have fattened their bank accounts to the point that they won't know how to resist putting some of it to use.

While we do perhaps have a lot of reasons to fear gloom and doom, we also have a consumer tinderbox waiting for a spark. I don't know which one will win out nor do I know how long it will do so. For example, I don't know if the tinderbox can be lit before housing prices start to rise. What is the ratio of renters vs owners?

I do know that the nuggets of information regarding real people, real habits, and their likely actions are few and far between. Too much of the material we read (on CNBC) is very biased by political viewpoints... and you need to find a way to see past that barrier to the good information the partisan baloney conceals.

UPDATE: Wednesday 7-Oct-2009

As a counterpoint, here is another article talking about problems caused by the ongoing lack of various debt-securitization markets.However, I will point out that the title seems a bit broad for the issue at hand. It seems that the article is pointing to the idea of a systemic inability for large lenders to resell their lending in order to enable more lending.

Perhaps the fact that these institutions, and their rating agency cohorts, have just burned half the planet with their prior recklessness is one reason that purchasers of these products are a bit gun shy?

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