Tuesday, January 8, 2008

AUDJPY Stop Losses Hit

Well, positions entered overnight and this morning have now been stopped out. We are approaching the SMA-50 (simple moving average over fifty measurements) at approximately 96.37 and we are likely to enter a buying zone soon.

Obviously, the risk is that it won't bounce, or worse, that it will bounce, give us false confidence, and then fall like a rock.

Picture taken shortly after post written
In any case, I'll be taking small chunks with the idea that accumulation is just fine as long as the positions are small enough.

Update - the apparent bounce collapses
Perhaps this will be interesting or informative. Notice how the upturn in the previous image has now been reversed?

And now we have a potential bottom/bounce, for this downward movement anyway, with some added trend lines. Of course, trends can be broken any time, but they do seem to work as predictors often too.

Possible trend line hit and bounce?

It's been a few hours since I started this post. Anyway, the AUDJPY is still trading in the trend lines. It's sweet to trade once you've established some trend lines -- as long as it stays in those lines.

At the very least, you'll notice resistance when the price hits these lines in the future (either top or bottom). There are other resistance points, of course, and it helps to know what they are too so you can trade wisely around them (after breaking or failing) instead of blindly taking your chances as they approach.

Another update which demonstrates the price bouncing off the trend lines previously drawn above. Now, whether this bounce is going to lead to a rally, or whether it will soon drop precipitously, isn't the important point. The fact that prices bounce around from what might at first appear to be arbitrary trend lines is the key point to take away from this...

Trend line proves it's value!
Of course, I bought another small chunk at the touch point. It's either going to be an accumulate position if the price drops down or a great buy if the trend holds.

Minutes Later...

The price has since dropped below the trend line. I'm now very happy I picked up only a small carry style position.

2 comments:

T. said...

Great blog you have here.

How are you finding Oanda as a broker?

Rookie said...

T, thanks for dropping in. I like Oanda as they have good spreads.

I wish they had true trailing stops, I miss those, but generally it doesn't make a big difference.

I'm hoping eventually to use their API, but I'll have to amass some capital before that.

The only thing I'd caution, for somebody considering Oanda, is that if you connectivity isn't good they are VERY frustrating to work with as their client/platform can degrade when things get interesting.