Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Turbulent Tuesday - AUDJPY Opportunities

I was on the road today, so I didn't have to witness the inevitable slide in the AUDJPY as the DOW searched for it's navel.

However, I was back in my technology haven in time to notice the AUDJPY bouncing off the 93.80 resistance point.

I don't know if we'll be on our way further down, but we are getting to historically depressed levels. Now, what to do. I'm putting in a little bit here, with the idea to put in more once I get this stake behind a stop loss. I'm hoping for an overnight bounce due to overseas trading - even though tomorrow might be another dizzying day on the DOW.

In general, whether or not you want to follow suit, I'm going to start considering the AUDJPY cheap, but at the same time realize it could drop like a stone. I'll take little pieces at resistance points, perhaps in the evenings after the DOW has wreaked it's havoc.

I really want to end up with some buried positions, here in the low 90's or further down, when the AUDJPY is back in the high 90's or 100's some time in the future. What could be better than having a large profitable carry position protected by 1000 pips or more once the recessionary downside is behind us?


After an initial bounce, to about 94.55 the AUDJPY has dropped down to a lower resistance level. Remember, if you want to get in, get in with sizes you can hold indefinitely, as there is no assurance of anything approaching a bottom.

Once a bottom does eventually occur, even if false, you'll be able to set stop losses and safely get stopped out during any downturn. In the mean time, if you jump in with too much, too often, you'll eventually end up with a busted account!

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