Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Fundamental Forex Guesswork

Okay, so during the NY trading session today I did manage to get some AUDJPY positions protected under a stop loss.

What I'm hoping, and I'll try to convince myself via fundamental issues, is that the foreign markets will rise based on US news. You see, the US economy came out luke warm today. Inflation didn't seem to be a big issue and various sectors were weak, but nothing was catastrophic.

This means that the Fed will apparently have no trouble lowering interest rates going forward.

So, we have competing issues. On one side we have a non-terminal US economy even though the US appears in the throes of a mild recession. On the other side we have the potential for a weaker US dollar because of expected interest rate cuts.

Anyway, as I said above, given the non-news out today, the world economy hopefully won't be seen to be mid-flush as of yet. This should let other markets take a small ride and possibly allow me to accumulate a few more protected positions.

As always, the alternate is that my stops are hit and I simply wait for a chance at an upward trend on another day.


I was frustrated to see that the double spike near the end of the trading day turned into a trend line. There didn't seem to be any good reason but I guess there never is. We'll see if that line will break. If it does, I'm expecting some upward movement from the break point.

Surprising Down Trend

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