Friday, September 21, 2007

Missing the USDCAD Bottom

Well, I'm not sure if the USDCAD has finally hit bottom or not. It's around parity today which is pretty much what people were talking about.

Now, I did purchase some before parity. So, I'm underwater, holding my breath, wondering how much time it might take before I'll notice some buoyancy and float back to the surface.

I guess this makes me a swing trader, because now I'm looking at holding my position for a long time, until the market swings a good distance. That's okay, as I've said many times this is a live and learn situation with an extremely small amount of capital involved.

Honestly, I think the world markets are on crack when they think of Canada as predominantly a commodities play. Don't they realize that a large segment of the GDP comes out of the manufacturing and export sector? Who are they going to send exports to with the Loonie hitting massive highs?

Also, while there are massive oil reserves, they are in the form of tar sands. It will take decades of massive development before these can be exploited. In short, the dollar is now way overvalued and the Canadian economy is going to suffer for it. Somehow I expect these facts to show up and force a USDCAD correction.

No comments: